An interim evaluation of the evidence against Knox and Sollecito

Part IX in a series on the Knox/Sollecito case

Here is an interim overview of some of the evidence in the murder of Meredith Kercher; individual issues may be covered in greater depth once the reasons for the verdict have been announced. We have already examined some of the problems with the DNA of the knife and bra clasp. Problematic as the LCN DNA of the knife and the weak, mixed DNA of the clasp are, they are the only things that tie Mr. Sollecito to the room and Ms. Knox to a supposed murder weapon. Without them the whole case looks insubstantial.

Forensic evidence
The investigators failed to perform and especially to report the DNA forensics to the usual degree of completeness, and this leaves many questions unanswered. The investigators did not take Filomena’s or Laura’s reference DNA samples, even though they were Meredith’s roommates. Chris Mellas, Amanda’s stepfather, said that despite a court order in the summer of 2009, the investigators failed to disclose the electronic data files of the DNA evidence (called .fsa files) and logs to the defense. The lack of disclosure of evidence concerning the DNA forensics was one of the reasons that the defense essentially moved for a mistrial in the fall, a motion which was denied. According to Barbie Nadeau (http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-09-14/no-mistrial-for-knox/), “Just as court adjourned in July, it was revealed that the prosecution had held back key evidence from the defense and civil attorneys. On Monday, clutching the Italian constitution, Sollecito’s lead defense attorney, Giulia Bongiorno, told the judge: ‘My client has been denied his right to adequate representation.’”

Although Ms. Nadeau does not indicate the nature of the evidence withheld, the subsequent Johnson/Hampikian open letter of 19 November 2009 noted specifically lack of disclosure of the .fsa files. Because it is difficult to see why the defense would not share such files with Dr. Johnson and Professor Hampikian (or at least make them aware that the files had been finally disclosed), the open letter tends to corroborate Mr. Mellas’ account. In addition, Bob Graham wrote (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233539/Amanda-Knox-victim-anti-American-trial-campaigners-urge-Hillary-Clinton-launch-investigation.html), “Other forensic experts in several countries – including two from Britain – have started to study the DNA results but have delayed giving a verdict until they have received precise details on the methodology used by their Italian counterparts. The failure of the prosecution to provide these details to Knox and Sollecito’s defence teams is one of their central complaints.”

Why are the .fsa files important? Technical bulletin 40-035 from Chromosomal Laboratories, Inc., is a checklist of what the laboratory is expected to provide, and it states, “Copies of all data files used and created in the course of performing tests and analyzing data in this case, including .fsa files, if applicable. These files should include all data necessary to independently reanalyze the raw data.” In response to a question on this subject, Professor Dan Krane wrote, “The biggest concern that I personally have regarding this case is the refusal of the prosecution to provide the defense with a copy of the electronic data that underlies the DNA test results -- that is virtually unheard of world-wide today and it would be especially important to review that data in a case such as this which seems to involve such low level samples.” According to a knowledgeable source, “Each tested sample has its own file. The file contains the full electropherogram trace information along with other information about the testing conditions (e.g., date, time, injection time, voltage, temperature, current, the RFU threshold used by the analyst). If you have the electronic data, you can use the DNA analysis software (GeneScan & Genotyper or GeneMapper ID) to independently analyze the electronic data. That allows you to examine the results as closely as possible (zoom in on the electropherogram to evaluate low-level results) and establish the RFU threshold of your choosing.”

One leaves DNA by many mechanisms including shedding hair and skin. Finding Ms. Knox’s DNA in her own flat is a very unsurprising result, whether or not it happened to be mixed with Meredith’s blood. Her DNA was found in Mr. Sollecito’s flat as well. The lack of their DNA in Meredith’s room on all but the bra clasp is a silence that shouts. In a pretrial hearing, Mr. Sollecito’s lawyers argued that it would have been very unlikely for him to be able to leave DNA on the bra clasp without also leaving it on the bra as well, yet none was found there (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/3255101/DNA-on-Meredith-Kerchers-bloodied-bra-was-due-to-lab-contamination-claims-Sollecito.html).

The other biological forensics was also problematic. Luminol was overapplied to one of the footprints, according to Colonel Garofano in the book Darkness Descending, leading to a loss of detail in the image. Moreover, luminol is a presumptive test for blood, one that should be confirmed by further testing. Although some claim to have the ability to tell blood from other substances via luminol alone, this claim is controversial in the forensic literature. Moreover, defense expert witness Sara Gino stated "We were not told that, first of all, the prints were treated with a substance which should have indicated whether they were blood, and the result was very uncertain." In addition, the investigators did not obtain reference footprints from all of the roommates. The temperature of Meredith’s body was taken about two days after death had occurred, making it harder to estimate the time of death.

The investigators could have performed the electronic forensics much more professionally. For example, the investigators damaged three hard drives, Meredith’s, Amanda’s, and one of Raffale’s, (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1234298/Amanda-Knox-The-troubling-doubts-Foxy-Knoxys-role-Meredith-Kerchers-murder.html). Amanda’s hard drive is said to have pictures of her and Meredith, evidence that would belie the impression that the two roommates did not get along, but her drive has not yet been salvaged. Her defense team has offered to pay for a different group of experts to attempt to retrieve the information, but this offer was rebuffed. The investigators also inadvertently erased a piece of potential alibi information (http://www.lastampa.it/redazione/cmsSezioni/cronache/200909articoli/47691girata.asp), the time that the file Stardust was accessed (http://perugia-shock.blogspot.com/2009/09/computer-places-knox-and-sollecito-at.html).


Non-forensic evidence
The prosecution would have us believe that a gang rape occurred, despite the fact that this is an unusual occurrence. Ms. Knox and Mr. Guede had met only twice, the two men had never met, and neither Ms. Knox nor Mr. Sollecito communicated with Mr. Guede in any documented way. It strikes me as extraordinarily risky to commit a crime with someone one does not know. Then Ms. Knox and Mr. Sollecito are imagined to have removed evidence linking them to the crime but not evidence linking Mr. Guede to the crime. In addition, the prosecution changed the motive during the trial but did not have evidence to support either motive.

Raffaele’s kitchen knife is too large to have made the bloody outline of the knife on the sheet. It is too large to make two of the three wounds, and any knife could have made the third. There is no reason for Raffaele and Amanda to have transported the knife in the first place. On top of that we are asked to believe that Raffaele and Amanda would not dispose of this knife, even though Rudy would have seen them use it and could rat them out, and even though the other knife was disposed of. We are also asked to believe that they would clean the blade of the knife but not the handle. This whole scenario would be risible if it were in a third-rate mystery novel.

Raffaele and Amanda are said to have faked evidence of the flat’s being burglarized. I do not find the argument that the break-in was staged to be convincing. There is little evidence pointing that way. Filomena’s room was tidy when she left it, but she recalled that when she returned, there was glass on her clothes. This suggests that someone put the clothes on the floor to simulate a break-in, then broke the window in her room. However, the photographic evidence is not definitive, and it is possible to imagine a number of explanations. Suppose the window were broken, and glass ended up on the laptop. Then suppose that the laptop were moved from the desk to the floor, where some of the glass slid off to some clothing and some remained on the computer. Also, Filomena was allowed back into her room to retrieve some items, and it is possible that she inadvertently did something to put glass on the strewn clothes and remembers the room as though she found it that way.

It has been argued that Raffaele called the Carabinieri after the unexpected arrival of the Postal Police, in an attempt to portray himself as a concerned but innocent citizen, then lied and said that his call to the Carabinieri preceded the appearance of the Postal Police (who were returning missing cell phones). The prosecution wants us to believe that Mr. Sollecito lied to the police about when he placed the call, before he was a suspect. The explanation for what probably did happen is complex, but unless one believes that Mr. Sollecito is very stupid, the prosecution’s theory does not make much sense. Attempting to lie about when the call to the Carabinieri would have little upside (he could have said to the postal police that he was just about to call them or the Carabinieri), and has a huge downside. One would generally believe that the police would be meticulous record keepers about the times of calls and other matters. If Mr. Sollecito were tempted to concoct this story, a moment’s thought should have been enough to convince him of the likelihood of being found out. The two defendants did do some dumb things, but I do not believe that they are that stupid.

Ms. Knox’s incriminating statements were thrown out as evidence for the murder trial; therefore, they cannot be used to assess her legal guilt or innocence. However, suppose we consider her incriminating statements against Lumumba in assessing factual innocence and ask why she made them. Her subsequent comments about the interrogation are similar to those made by people who have been pressured into making false confessions. Francesca Bene’s interrogation provides a modest amount of support for what Ms. Knox said, as discussed in a previous post. In addition, we have Douglas Preston’s account of his being interrogated in a foreign language, and his evaluation that his halting answers made him sound like a liar. It is quite possible that Ms. Knox’s interrogators misperceived similar behaviors of hers as evidence that she had something to hide and therefore pressed harder. Moreover, her later statement, “But I've said this many times so as to make myself clear: these things seem unreal to me, like a dream,” implicitly disavows Lumumba’s involvement.

The investigators claim that no undue coercion was used, but Dr. Giobbi said that he heard Amanda screaming. The investigators claim that they did not record the key interrogations with Amanda that night, despite having previously recorded her interviews and phone calls. Furthermore, they lied when they said that Amanda came in to the police headquarters of her own volition (http://perugia-shock.blogspot.com/2009/05/giobbi-i-gave-order.html). Therefore, Ms. Knox’s account of her interrogation is more credible than theirs is.

Ms. Knox’s allegedly performing a cartwheel at the police station was the fodder for a great deal of negative publicity. Her own explanation of that episode, as relayed through Chris Mellas to Frank Sfarzo of Perugia-Shock, is that she was stretching to relieve stress when a policeman commented on her flexibility. They fell into a conversation, and he asked her what other gymnastics or exercises she knew. Ms. Knox’s testimony at her trial mentioned meeting the policeman but did not say whether or not he asked her to demonstrate other gymnastic moves. Elsewhere, she implied that she did at least some exercises or stretches of her own accord. Therefore, her testimony neither contradicts nor confirms the version Mr. Sfarzo reported. In any case, her yoga or gymnastics have little or no bearing on her guilt or innocence.

What about Raffaele’s probable lie about his cooking with Meredith and his pricking her finger? Does this not generate suspicion? His statement was made only after he had heard that her DNA was found on the knife blade, not before, and it was made without knowledge of the quality of the data. His statement was stupid, but understandable. Therefore, I would say that there is reason to be suspicious of Amanda and Raffaele, probably not enough to indict, and certainly not enough to convict.

The defense have argued that this tragic crime was the work of a lone assailant, Rudy Guede. The evidence linking Mr. Guede to the crime is much stronger; there is a bloody handprint, the bowel movement in the toilet, and there are several pieces of DNA evidence. I am puzzled by the sexual aspect of the crime, but despite this reservation, Mr. Guede acting alone in the rape and murder is the most logical explanation to me. If information about Rudy’s involvement had come back earlier, I doubt that the investigators would have ever moved for an indictment against Raffaele or Amanda. In other words, this is an instance of garden-variety tunnel-vision on the part of the investigators.